Next EU Exit

The next EU country to invoke Article 50 after the UK

France is looking the most likely 👀

After analysing trends on the combined likelihoods of a variety of alternative outcomes, France is the most likely outcome to The next EU country to invoke Article 50 after the UK.

Top Mover



Italy, on 3.6%, has seen their probability increase the most over the past day.

Highest Likelihood

Currently on 7.7%, France is the looking the most likely.


Typical Interest

This topic is receiving a typical amount of interest at the moment.

Likelihood History

About Next EU Exit

The Lisbon Treaty became law in December 2009, eight years after European leaders launched a process to make the EU "more democratic, more transparent and more efficient". It's an agreement signed by the heads of state and government of countries that are part of the EU. Part of that law was Article 50. A very basic five-point plan should any country wish to leave the European Union.