Brexit Deal

Will This Happen?

Probably not 👎

After analysing trends on the likelihood of Brexit Deal, it is looking unlikely that The House of Commons' Meaningful Vote on Theresa May's Brexit will pass in 2019 will happen.

Recent Movement

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Stable Probability

Within recent days the likelihood of this has remained relatively stable.

Current Likelihood

There is currently a 17.9% chance that The House of Commons' Meaningful Vote on Theresa May's Brexit will pass in 2019.

Popularity

Typical Interest

This topic is receiving a typical amount of interest at the moment.

Likelihood History

About Brexit Deal

'Meaningful vote' is the common name given to Section 13 of the United Kingdom's European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. It is a requirement that the UK government bring forward an amendable parliamentary motion at the end of the Article 50 negotiations between the government and the European Union. For a long time this was no more than a stated intention. However, during the passage of the EU Withdrawal Act, the cornerstone of the Government’s programme of Brexit legislation, the Government agreed to important changes to its original proposed procedure for Parliament’s consideration of the Brexit deal, including giving Parliament a ‘meaningful vote’ on the deal.