Scottish Independence

When will Scotland hold a second independence referendum.

2025 or later is looking the most likely 👀

After analysing trends on the combined likelihoods of a variety of alternative outcomes, 2025 or later is the most likely outcome to When will Scotland hold a second independence referendum..

Top Mover



2020, on 0.1%, has seen their probability increase the most over the past day.

Highest Likelihood

Currently on 47.6%, 2025 or later is the looking the most likely.


Typical Interest

This topic is receiving a typical amount of interest at the moment.

Likelihood History

About Scottish Independence

The Scottish Government has proposed holding a second referendum on Scottish independence from the UK. In March 2017, the Scottish Parliament authorised the Scottish Government to request a transfer of powers from the UK Parliament to hold a referendum but the UK Parliament and Government has not agreed to this request to date.