Scottish Independence

When will Scotland hold a second independence referendum.

2025 or later is looking the most likely 👀

After analysing trends on the combined likelihoods of a variety of alternative outcomes, 2025 or later is the most likely outcome to When will Scotland hold a second independence referendum..

Top Mover


2025 or later

2025 or later, on 98%, has seen their probability increase the most over the past day.

Highest Likelihood

Currently on 98%, 2025 or later is the looking the most likely.


Low Interest

This topic is receiving less interest than normal at the moment.

Likelihood History

About Scottish Independence

The Scottish Government has proposed holding a second referendum on Scottish independence from the UK. In March 2017, the Scottish Parliament authorised the Scottish Government to request a transfer of powers from the UK Parliament to hold a referendum but the UK Parliament and Government has not agreed to this request to date.