Scottish Independence

Will This Happen?

Not a chance ⛔️

After analysing trends on the likelihood of Scottish Independence, it is looking unlikely that Scotland will vote to leave the UK in IndyRef2, the next independence referendum will happen.

Recent Movement

icon-probability_stable

Stable Probability

Within recent days the likelihood of this has remained relatively stable.

Current Likelihood

There is currently a 0.6% chance that Scotland will vote to leave the UK in IndyRef2, the next independence referendum.

Popularity

Typical Interest

This topic is receiving a typical amount of interest at the moment.

Likelihood History

About Scottish Independence

The Scottish Government has proposed holding a second referendum on Scottish independence from the UK. In March 2017, the Scottish Parliament authorised the Scottish Government to request a transfer of powers from the UK Parliament to hold a referendum but the UK Parliament and Government has not agreed to this request to date.